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The Recession

The Recession Journal

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█▓▒░ The Recession ░▒▓
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The Recession Journal of US and Global Recession
January 1, 2016
RECESSION 2016 - If, when, where, how and why. Welcome back to the_recession, Mr. Anderson. We missed you!

February 05, 2008
Welcome to the_recession. As of Super Duper Tuesday 08, the recession naysayers have been dealt a serious blow, as the stock markets tanked in response to a horrible ISM Non-Manufacturing reading for the month of January. It has been opined by many that recession began late last year, and this could be a very difficult downturn, indeed.

December 1, 2008

And now it's official.

Today, December 1, 2008, the National Bureau of Economic Research (the official independent arbiter of economic cycles in the U.S.) stated that they have determined the current recession began in December of 2007:
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

February 7, 2009

IMF confirms that recession has not only gone global, but that the world is facing the most severe financial and economic crisis since the 1930s[1], with the advanced economies "already in depression."[2]

October 1, 2011 Update Part A
On September 20 of last year the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER concluded that the recession which began at the end of 2007 came to a close in June of 2009, making it the longest recession since the Great Depression, by their method.

The NBER wrote:
"The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.

In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.

The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date."


October 1, 2011 Update Part B
The expansion, which technically began in mid-2009, has been one of the shortest and weakest of the post WWII era. This disappointing performance is largely due to the hangover left in the wake of the historic housing and credit bubble of the 2000s, and ensuing global financial & economic meltdown.

By September, 2011, many economic forecasters (not Wall Street pump 'n dumpers) were ratcheting up their risk of recession calls to as much as 50%, a few even higher. At the end of that month these warnings were really punctuated by forecast of outright imminent recession from the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

In its public announcement, ECRI noted:

"Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off."



Do you have an opinion on the economy in your country, state or territory? Take our Live Journal Global Economic Poll and tell us how things are doing where you are! Countries from A to Z are listed and we want your input!


Some posting and commenting guidelines, do's and don'ts :


- Here at the_recession we value original, well thought-out posts over cut-and-pasted repostings. A referenced paragraph or two is fine, but we do not want to be another source of interweb copypasta. Respect copyright and fair use standards. BONUS! If an original, on-topic, well-written post is attracting a lot of community buzz - or - if it is just deemed worthy by a Moderator, it could be made *HIGHLIGHTED & FEATURED POST* by the_recession and even given additional national and international promotion!

- Posts that are patently offensive to groups of people (such as their race, sex, or religion) do not belong here, and will be deleted and at Moderator discretion, user may be instantly banned. Fair warning.

- Keep it friendly :) Name calling is unnecessary. Even if it is done indirectly, it also doesn't belong here.

- Stay on topic :) Posts that have little or nothing to do with the recession, societal economic issues, and related do not belong here.


Other:

The following results are a reconstruction of a poll we took a while back regarding other posting guidelines. Please note that while with regard to these topics, they are only general guidelines, and not steadfast rules, we do ask that they be respected, for the most part.

Posts per person per day:
Please try to limit individual per-person posts to no more than three posts per day.

Length of post before LJ cut:
Most of the time, posts should be no more than eight inches long on a standard computer screen using standard size fonts, before a cut is necessary.

Images:
Generally speaking, any more than two small to medium-sized images, or any one particularly large image, should go behind a cut. A picture that is likely to re-size ones F-list should always go behind a cut.

Videos:
Generally speaking, any more than two small to medium-sized videos, or any one particularly large video, should go behind a cut. Always place any "auto-play" videos behind a cut.

Tags:
When posting, please try to find at least two community Tags that seem appropriate to the post.

Thanks! :)

BLOGROLL:

Economic Websites:
VoxEU
Brookings
Financial Times
Economy.com Dismal Scientist
CNN Money
Baseline Scenario
NY Times Business
Wall Street Journal Online
The Economist
Center for Economic & Policy Research
Council on Foreign Relations
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
US Federal Reserve
Shadow Stats
eforecasting
Economic Cycle Research Institute
National Bureau of Economic Research



Econ & Business Blogs:
Jeffrey Frankel on Seeking Alpha
Mark Thoma on Seeking Alpha
John Lounsbury on Seeking Alpha
Steven Hansen on Seeking Alpha
Peter Morici on Seeking Alpha
Bubble Meter
Economist's View
Mish's Global Economic Analysis
Naked Capitalism
Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
Greg Mankiw
Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions & policy
Marginal Revolution
Paul Krugman The Conscience of a Liberal
Calculated Risk
Credit Slips
Megan McArdle



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