Saul Occupation10

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2016 US Recession - Global Recession

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The Recession Journal
The Latest Recession News Analysis & Opinion

Would you like to know how bad the recession is going to be? Will it be a US Recession or maybe engulf the whole world and become a Global Recession? Mild? Severe? Are you trying to find out more about The Great Recession? Need details on the Financial Crisis? Do you have an opinion on these subjects or more questions than answers? You've come to the right place. This is The Recession Journal.

- By popular request, we have listed NBER Official US Recessions on the Welcome Page -

List of US Recessions

Post-1900 US Recessions:
Sep 1902 - 23 Months, May 1907 - 13 Months, Jan 1910 - 24 Months, Jan 1913 - 23 Months, Aug 1918 - 7 Months, Jan 1920 - 18 Months, May 1923 - 14 Months, Oct 1926 - 13 Months, Aug 1929 - 43 Months, May 1937 - 13 Months, Feb 1945 - 8 Months, Nov 1948 - 11 Months, Jul 1953 - 10 Months, Aug 1957 - 8 Months, Apr 1960 - 10 Months, Dec 1969 - 11 Months, Nov 1973 - 16 Months, Jan 1980 - 6 Months, Jul 1981 - 16 Months, Jul, 1990 - 8 Months, Mar 2001 - 8 Months, Dec 2007 - 18 Months .... 2016?

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The End of the American Dream and Beyond

From social to economics to politics, to climate and earth changes, the end seems near for centuries of progress...
... and for decades of trickle-down, debt-induced delusion.  As we progressed, we sold out, and off-shore. To the banks and mega-corps. Now we daftly agree to disagree, and disagree, and disagree... Meanwhile, leading economic indicators continue to point to one thing: A growing bifurcation between the now-poor middle class, and the corporate elites, who eat our land, and weather, and taxes, and health, and wealth - and play left against right, and so on. And the mega-media likes it this way: Manufacturing consent, and fear, and false flags, and war. Is this what we bargained for?

So - I put together an awkward little compendium of articles relating to the faltering of our drunken journey to OZ, especially as of late - and to come. Pedantic economics, mainly. Let's start with an article from late 2014, when times were simpler, and most people had never heard of Bernie Sanders...

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Note: I have less or worse to say about the Status-Quo Republicans.
Saul Occupation10

Brexit Vote Global Growth Downgrades Begin

Goldman Sachs: UK Recession and More Global Slowdown

Goldman Sachs economists. After the Brexit Shock:

Following the UK referendum, we have downgraded our global growth forecast, sharply in the UK and more modestly elsewhere. Increased uncertainty and deteriorating terms of trade are likely to subtract a cumulative 2¾% from UK GDP... We estimate the cumulative hit to Euro area... and have cut our growth forecast over the next two years to 1¼%. We have also slightly shaved our H2 2016 forecast for US growth to 2%.. However, the risks to this forecast are significant and further downward adjustments could well follow.

Goldman's primary initial concerns post Brexit vote:

  • Terms of trade are likely to head south

  • Uncertainty will have companies reducing investment all over

  • Tightening global financial conditions due to exchange rate instabilities
Saul Occupation10

Brexit Banking Crisis Unfolding

The Bank Index in Europe Just Had it's Largest Daily Drop Ever

"They're going lower ... avoid these ... don't pick bargains.. there's going to be some European bank stocks that lose all their equity value in 2016 ... like Bear Stearns style... it's a very grim picture.. it's a mess..."

Saul Occupation10

Brexit Independence or Dumbocracy

Brexit Recession 2016

Were Brits taking back matters into their own hands,
or is this an example of uninformed, scared masses practicing Dumbocracy.

Salon: “Brexit” is British for Trump


Google search spike suggests people don't know why they Brexited

The United Kingdom — the country of my birth — has just voted to leave the European Union. The majority of the electorate has chosen to turn its back on the biggest political project in the world, a flawed but forward-thinking union that served as the only concrete symbol of European unity after the continent was torn apart by two World Wars. But why? According to Google, a lot of voters aren't really sure...

The simple answers to that question have already been observed — the British pound plummets to a record low in value, the economy contracts, and the country's political parties scrabble around in the wreckage of the current Conservative government to dial back on ridiculous promises they made. But the real answers, the long-term results of ditching the EU in favor of nebulous ideas of "independence" and a new-found sovereignty, are wildly complex.

Arguably too complex for the average citizen. Referendums are a brute-force political engine, a numbers game designed to spit out a yes or no answer on a simple question. Something as complicated and multi-faceted as Britain's membership of the EU, on the other hand, should not have been decided by referendum, instead weighed up by independent experts versed in the thousands of ways the UK interacts with the biggest economic power on Earth.

But as the proponents of the Leave campaign repeatedly argued, UK citizens had apparently "had enough of experts." Instead the vote became about single issues, with one — immigration — at the core. Tens of millions of "incoming migrants" from Turkey and Syria were the specter with which pro-Leavers spooked the populace, using misleading figures and maps in canvassing materials despite the fact there was no possibility either country would join the EU. The Leave campaign has also kept quiet about the fact that any favorable economic deal a Brexited UK would make with Europe would very likely see it accepting the same amount of incoming immigrants...

Trump Praises 'Beautiful' Brexit

And across the pond, Trump stock just went up again thanks to the results of last night's historic vote, giving him the latest in a never-ending run of free press with which to scare old, white people with, and reassure them that nationalism and tribalism, rebranded as 'smart policy,' is the way to go. As you can imagine, this sure sounds good to members of the Klu Klux Klan.

The Telegraph
Donald Trump praises 'beautiful' Brexit and says Boris Johnson will make a good Prime Minister

..Speaking on a visit to Scotland, the presumptive Republican candidate said the British people had “taken back their independence” and predicted the end of the EU could be “on its way” with other member states fed up with immigrants flowing across “Swiss cheese” borders.

He also said there was a “big parallel” with the political mood in the US and elsewhere in the world, including Germany, arguing that people want to “take their borders back” and “have their country again.” ...

Financial Times: You Tell Us: Voters Chose to Leave the EU. Now What?

A quick note on the first three tragedies. Firstly, it was the working classes who voted for us to leave because they were economically disregarded, and it is they who will suffer the most in the short term. They have merely swapped one distant and unreachable elite for another.

Secondly, the younger generation has lost the right to live and work in 27 other countries. We will never know the full extent of the lost opportunities, friendships, marriages and experiences we will be denied. Freedom of movement was taken away by our parents, uncles, and grandparents in a parting blow to a generation that was already drowning in the debts of our predecessors.

Thirdly and perhaps most significantly, we now live in a post-factual democracy. When the facts met the myths they were as useless as bullets bouncing off the bodies of aliens in a HG Wells novel. When Michael Gove said, 'The British people are sick of experts,' he was right. But can anybody tell me the last time a prevailing culture of anti-intellectualism has led to anything other than bigotry?
Saul Occupation10

The Brexit Recesssion

Brexit May Be Global Economy's Undoing

Global Recession 2016 Odds Way Back Up

Recession 2016 and Financial Crisis 2016 Risks Seen Spiking

It had looked like the US economy (and indeed, the global economy) was getting a good enough break to regain enough...

Posted by Recession Journal on Thursday, June 23, 2016

Financial impotence in the Atlantic

The author calls this - Financial Impotence, referring directly to the shame of having failed to be appropriately masculine. The inability to provide financially for my family is located precariously near the inability to sexually satisfy a mate. Men, to be real men, should be able to do these things, and when we can't - we aren't going to talk about it.
47 Percent of Americans cannot come up with $400 for an emergency, without selling something or borrowing. That was my family from 2010 until a few months ago. The article reminds us that during our personal boom-bust cycles, we go into debt during the bust, but do not save during the boom - we spend. Without details, that sounds irresponsible.
During the first 6 months of my family having an income that actually went beyond our minimal basic needs - we spent like crazy. Why? Because over the course of the last few years of subsistence living, everything we owned was broken, held together with tape, and on it's last legs. Our coffee maker leaked water all over the counter, the car had no air conditioning (In Phoenix Arizona), the computer that generates income had to be restarted several times a day - we didn't spend on lobster dinners and movie memorabilia, we spent because our daily tools were falling apart.
Second Point - and this may be my main point - is why do middle class white Americans get into this kind of trouble? They make a very good income, but the expenses are right in line with it - so even those who are above middle class cannot come up with emergency money? Easy - because we believed the lie that we would do better over time. We were told that hard working college educated white males could expect to increase their income over the prime working years (like our Father's did), so if we can barely make the payment on that great house you buy when you are 35 - that's fine. By 45, you will be earning so much more, and you got into that house at the right time, so it's value went up, your earning went up, and now the extra money is in savings.
That didn't happen. No one got a raise in the last 15 years, except the CEO. We did the math and got into the best house we could afford, with very little margin for error, but 5 years later, we didn't have a bigger check. Didn't see that raise 10 years later, either. Housing increases floated us, but that went bust, and there was nothing left.
We did what we were supposed to do - I was a middle class white male, military veteran, good State University education, technical and sales skills, joined the workforce, got married, bought a house, stuffed money into the 401(k), and bought the best house I could barely afford. Just two years later, I was homeless with a baby. I didn't have any savings, because I put everything I had into getting that home and making the payments. I was told, and believed, that this was the right thing to do, because I could count on making more in the near future.
The only ones who got a raise, were the Owners. Those who had jobs were lucky, so they didn't complain when the workload doubled, and their wages remained static. That double productivity on half the payroll expense went straight to the bottom line, and was distributed to shareholders, who liked the new arrangement. We are in our 6th straight year of staggering profits and stagnant wages. Those who managed to keep their houses, and appear to be doing well, are only keeping their nose above water. They look good to the already-drowned.
America will not recover without a Raise. Wages need to go up. Maybe all those unions we complained about in the 80's for being greedy and corrupt, were the only people looking out for the workers. I've never been in a Union, but I've lived in the post-union workforce, and I got screwed. I'm betting that you've been screwed, too.
Maybe Union empowerment isn't the answer, I don't know. But the only way we can start to find the right solution is to talk about it. If you can't afford a $400 emergency expense, ask your friends and colleagues if they can. Pass around an article like this - hey, it's 47% of us, it's me, is it you?  You probably aren't alone.
Saul Occupation10

Years of The Recession

Years of "The Recession"

The Recession Years

The Recession Journal on Livejournal has kept track of every year of global and US recession since 2008! the_recession has the timeline of The Great Recession and more. Read and discuss the years of recession with us. Share your thoughts. Tell your story.

The Recession 2008 Recession 2008. The Recession 2009 Recession 2009. The Recession 2010 Recession 2010. The Recession 2011 Recession 2011. The Recession 2012 Recession 2012. The Recession 2013 Recession 2013. The Recession 2014 Recession 2014. The Recession 2015 Recession 2015. The Latest Recession Recession 2016 Recession 2016.
Saul Occupation10

2016 China Imports/Exports Tank at Crisis-Like Rates

Global Financial Crisis-Like China Trade Data

Abysmal Import and Export Data out of China in 2016

Year-over-Year Chinese exports sank by 11.2% and imports tanked by 18.8%, in January, posting far, far worse declines than expected by most, who according to Reuters, were generally looking for a 0.8% fall in imports and a 1.9% decline in exports.

And now, most recently in February, Year-over-Year Chinese exports show a further 25.4% slide from the same month last year, while February's imports slid 13.8%. These figures were also far worse than the declines forecast by most analysts. According to Reuters, the February YoY drop in Chinese exports was the worst YoY showing since May, 2009, during the depths of the 08-09 Global Financial Crisis.

... Air is most definitely coming out of China's tires
Saul Occupation10

World on Brink of Another Great Recession: Schwenninger

From RT

Increasing Risk of New Global Depression 2016

Sherle R. Schwenninger, World Economic Roundtable at New America/The Nation Magazine, joins Thom. Economists - the people who study this stuff for a living - now think that the world is teetering on the edge of yet another big recession. Slowing growth in China - plummeting stock prices - and sputtering growth in Europe - they say that all of these things are warning signs that the fundamentals of the economy are weak - and that we could be heading for another big collapse.